US Elections 2024: What’s next for Pakistan
As the American presidential elections are nearing Pakistan precedes how its ripples would affect its political and economic upcoming. At present the country is caught in its internal challenges struggling to disentangle itself from a deep economic crisis, intensified by financial and administrative mismanagement. Muslim League government has taken measures to stabilize the economy however, the post-February election had left the nation with an uncertain status quo. The recent budget 2024 backed by International Monetary Fund (IMF) demands has sparked nationwide protest as every sector of society feels its impact. The outcomes of the American elections hold the potential to further influence its future. Change in the US administration can lead to a change in its foreign policies, including political ones. Under the current democratic government, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution calling for a “full and independent” investigation into alleged irregularities in Pakistan’s election. This was considered an interference in the internal matters of Pakistan. However, no statement was issued to address this matter. The question is how the situation will turn out under a Republican government, not very apt for Pakistan’s political policies.
Pakistan and China have a strong geo-political alliance and a historical friendship. However, Pakistan also maintains a complex and strategic relationship with the United States, with cooperation in areas like counterterrorism and security. If a shift occurs in the current political dilemma the U.S.-China relationship might worsen, leading Pakistan to face challenges in finding a balance with both countries.
The Peace Pipeline, a gas line project between Iran and Pakistan has been delayed for more than a decade. US warns Pakistan of moving forward with a deal, citing sanctions and the threat of jeopardizing IMF support from Washington. Pakistan’s majority of the population depends on natural gas for its basic needs and this project is in people’s best interest. But the problem is Pakistan cannot afford to get involved in the middle of the conflict between the US and Iran. A new government might alter the US stance impacting Pakistan’s ability to proceed with the project.
For now, it is fair to believe that Trump is ahead in the electoral race, but his chance of winning slimed after Kamala Harris was nominated by Joe Biden as his successor. Kamala, a woman of race and colour is a new face in the picture though Trump is tried and tested so his policies might not be a surprise. During his presidency, Trump regarded India as a key strategic partner to counterbalance China’s position in the region while Pakistan was viewed primarily through the lens of counter-terrorism and regional stability. On the other hand, Harris may take a more balanced approach to the Kashmir dispute keeping in mind her vocal stance on the human rights crisis. Regarding Pakistan-China relations, Harris is likely to recognize their strategic ties, seeking to balance US interests through broader diplomatic and economic initiatives to offset China’s impact.
Over 1.2 million Pakistani Americans are deeply immersed in the ongoing elections. For them, the American policies in the Israel-Palestine conflict matter a lot. Harris who had strongly advocated for an end to the war, declared in a statement “We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering, and I will not be silent”. This support of Harris seems unbelievable given the democratic government run by Biden’s longstanding pro-Israel stance. Despite this, the general public favours her due to fears of what another 4 years Trump regime could mean for Palestine. Trump who has previously called himself as the “best friend that Israel has ever had” has expressed dissatisfaction with Israel’s actions against Palestine, terming them sad. With the new regime, previous actions cannot be forgotten like Trump’s Mideast Peace Plan which he called “a win-win” for both Palestine and Israel. The plan discarded the longtime goal of granting the Palestinians a full-fledged state, guaranteeing Israel full control of a unified Jerusalem.
Keeping the complex history of US-Pakistan relations and domestic challenges of Pakistan, it is yet to be seen what will be the actual impact. There are pros and cons of both parties winning US elections. The democratic party was previously most favoured by Pakistan, nevertheless, policies, or policymakers to be exact, have changed with time and have not given Pakistan much attention compared to the prior Trump era, where Pakistan remained to be seen on the map of the world, if not the most favoured nation. No doubt the outcomes of the US election will play an influential role for Pakistan, however the path that leads to stability and a prosperous future requires rigorous efforts from the government and all sectors of society.
Arooj Fatima
The writer is a researcher based in Islamabad.
